What drives ideological shifts

An informal study about why people abandon old political beliefs.

Why do people change their minds? That’s a question I’ve been interested in for quite some time.

In an era of deepening political polarization, understanding why and how individuals shift their ideological views offers insights into social dynamics and potential paths to bridge divides. That’s why several years ago (in 2021 to be exact), I had conducted an informal study, based on 69 respondents who self-reported changing their political ideologies—exploring the triggers, processes, and emotional impacts.

It’s important to note that this sample, recruited via social media (primarily Twitter), is not representative of the general population and skews toward those disillusioned with left-leaning ideologies, with ~85% moving from left to right or center rather than the reverse. However, it still reveals powerful patterns in personal and societal triggers for change.

Combining qualitative narratives with quantitative metrics (e.g., happiness, confidence scales), this (again, informal) study explores the catalysts, processes, and emotional impacts of ideological realignment, shedding light on a phenomenon that’s increasingly relevant today.

Presented without judgement are my findings:

Triggers for change

Many of those who have changed positions say that their original side “went too far” (eg. extremist tendencies) or changed in ways that felt irrational or alienating.

Some incidents respondents cited as triggers for moving to the right include events like the Charlie Hebdo attack, the 2016 U.S. election, the George Floyd riots/defund police movement, COVID fumbles by CDC, censorship, identity politics, or other high-profile political/media controversies, which sparked reflection within them.

When it came to moves towards the left, respondents noted things like hypocrisy in the right (e.g., Trump on immigrants) and social compassion:

"What I used to dislike about the left is now what I dislike about the right: constant complaining about social issues, fearmongering, wild exaggerations, outrage culture, etc," wrote one respondent.

Select quotes from left-to-right/center respondents:

"As the left went insane, I saw there was a steadily growing list of things I was forbidden from noticing or voicing concerns about, let alone openly disagreeing with, became too long."

"I became a non-political party affiliate when I realized that all the politicians went along with the Corona-hoax. That opened my eyes to realize that all presidents and politicians are puppets."

"The left’s denial of evolution and biology, the rise of trans power and the utter ignoring of the effects on women, even failing to carry out the mandated impact assessments."

"The DNC’s conduct with respect to Bernie Sanders’ campaign in 2016, followed by Trump’s election and the left’s subsequent meltdown made me reassess my alignment with the Democratic Party and the media."

"The left absolutely lost its collective mind."

Impact of media

Many respondents noted a shift in trusted news outlets, discovering alternative media, or distrust of mainstream narratives as catalysts.

Individuals mentioned as influential by at least >5 respondents include (in order of frequency of mentions): Jordan Peterson, Thomas Sowell, Ben Shapiro, Douglas Murray, Bret Weinstein, and Bari Weiss. Top media cited as a common entry point for alternative views include the Joe Rogan show, Rubin Report, Dark Horse, as well as YouTube debates and Twitter. Books include: "12 Rules for Life" (Peterson), "Basic Economics" (Sowell), "The Coddling of the American Mind" (Haidt/Lukianoff), "Cynical Theories" (Pluckrose/Lindsay).

Respondents stated that they often either "validated doubts" or provided "rational alternatives" to echo chambers.

Process of change

The change did not happen overnight. The majority of respondents describe slow, multi-year transitions rather than overnight conversions.

Cognitive dissonance had built overtime and respondents often note small inconsistencies that accumulated until they no longer identified with their prior ideology.

A few respondents experienced “lightbulb moments” or sudden breaks triggered by one shocking event, though this was a less common occurrence.

Answers in most cases reveal gradual, evidence-driven shifts rather than rapid flips.

Select quotes from respondents:

"My first 'redpill' I remember it well. It was Charlie Hebdo. When progressives argued they had it coming because of blasphemy. It blew my mind!"

"The media making definitive, factual-style statements about Trump’s guilt with regard to Russia collusion, which if true, should have ended his Presidency early... As time went on and actual investigations took place and they failed to prove the statements of the media, it made me think that the media was either lying or incompetent."

"About a year and a half ago I was sitting on the couch with my then 9-year-old daughter and she said ‘mom, sometimes I feel ashamed of being white’ and that was a wake up call for me."

"It was during the George Floyd protests I knew that ‘defund the police’ was a really bad idea esp. for vulnerable pop. but I kept saying it anyway… cause everyone else was. I just felt like a fraud and a coward."

"My best friend at the time... said ‘racism requires power and privilege, so you can’t be racist to white people.’ It was said so matter-of-factly, as though learned by rote, that I was instantly taken aback."

Influences

Books, podcasts, and online communities often provided frameworks that made alternative viewpoints more palatable.

Also, critical, were personal relationships—both supportive and challenging ones—in accelerating or delaying the shift.

Personality and openness

Many respondents rated themselves highly open-minded (often 7.8/10) before their shift, suggesting self-perceived openness may make ideological movement more likely.

However, some with “stick to my beliefs” tendencies still shifted, usually after strong external shocks.

~62% (43 respondents) described themselves as tending to "stick closely" to beliefs once formed.

~38% (26) said they have an "easy time" changing minds or follow evidence flexibly.

Average rating for strength of previous belief was 8.5/10.

Emotional impact

Happiness scores after the shift are often higher or stable, but there are cases where happiness dropped—often when people felt politically homeless after the change.

Confidence in new beliefs is generally high (8.6/10), suggesting the shift results in a new sense of certainty.

Happiness with previous ideology was 6.4, with many individuals citing unhappiness from hypocrisy or resentment. When it comes to happiness with present ideology, we saw an increase of 1.7 (8.1) attributed to authenticity, better alignment with personal values, realism, and reduced "victimhood."

75% of respondents reported higher present happiness (+2.1 average gain for those).

Social cost

Several respondents noted losing friendships or community connections. Lack of representation in existing political parties is also a recurring frustration.

Many feel "politically homeless" or "lonely" post-shift, and fear cancellation in left-leaning circles (e.g., academia, arts). Right-leaning communities are seen as more open to debate.

About 30% reported support for their new ideologies via family or being able to find new communities.

At least 50% reported negative aspects like losing friends, strains with their families, and job fears.

Quotes:

"I am very painfully aware that 95% of my friends would disown me or begin to distance themselves should I admit everything I think about the left."

"I feel lonely, politically homeless actually. I’m for the environment, for health, not religious, not into ‘FreeDumbs’. But I don’t feel part of any physical community either."

"Being among them was like walking on eggshells. I found myself correcting my own thoughts and self-censoring... It was no way to live. I broke free of the animal farm and went all the way out. Doing so was, in a word, liberating."

"I’ve lost a lot of friends for the sin of not being a socialist or believing in nation states lol. I’m alt right because I like Bari Weiss. Honestly feel kinda lonely in my new beliefs but it feels better than lying."

"I don’t know anyone at university who is not a bleeding heart liberal. So I continue to pretend I am or at least just don’t say anything that would stir the pot. People get kicked out for these things."

More select quotes on reasons for change:

"I think it’s a natural tendency to become more conservative as you grow older and realize the ideal can’t always be achieved. You also start to ‘respect your elders’ so to speak, and the value that is inherited over time."

"Fiscally conservative became a natural state when it was my tax money being thrown around. I felt more attached to it. When you are not making money you feel ok for everyone to get free handouts, unreasonably so."

"I’m still compassionate but I think more realistic than I was when I was liberal and younger."

"Instead of thinking America was innately negative place to live in general, I was exposed to the idea of how lucky I was to live in such an advanced, free, and amazing place even though it isn’t perfect."

"Part of my unhappiness as a lefty/progressive was that I couldn’t square how I lived my life and many of my beliefs with lefty/progressive beliefs. Took me a long time to resolve the conflict."

Reflections on polarization and society:

"I feel like we, as a society, are awash in cults and religious thinking. I fear the demise of pluralistic society. I wish we’d let each other be wrong, rather than rush to label each other as infidels / blasphemers."

"The scariest thing to me is that regular people are being turned against regular people by both state actors and media. There is no call for unity, forgiveness or compassion rising to meet the rage and hate from either side."

"What I used to dislike about the left is now what I dislike about the right: constant complaining about social issues, fearmongering, wild exaggerations, outrage culture, etc."

"A big issue for me is my kids. They are being fed lies about science, race, sex etc. I can’t allow it but it’s nearly impossible to get their teachers to even hear a parent."

"We’re being dominated by this mindset that’s completely alien to ours... We are all being set against each other—black and white; different religions."

More about respondent sample

Data collection occurred approximately May-July 2021. Respondents are primarily from the United States (52 out of 69, or ~75%), with others from Canada (7), UK (3), Australia (2), and scattered countries like Malaysia, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, and Israel.

The sample skews toward older age groups (35-53 years old category makes up about 71%), and is not representative of the general population—it's self-selected, recruited via social media, and focuses on those who have undergone ideological shifts.

---

If you found this story useful, please consider supporting my work by sharing, becoming a paid subscriber, or making a one-off donation via Buy Me a Coffee ☕️.

Also, check out my book: No Apologies: How to Flind and Free your Voice in the Age of Outrage!