Uncertainty can feel frightening. As if someone else is driving your car and you don’t know whether to trust their driving skills. More alarmingly, you have no clue where they are even taking you.
My primary concern with Trump is that he will abandon Ukraine. I will become ill if I watch tanks roll into Kyiv due to this. The world is safer with the Pax Americana since WW2. I also worry about Taiwan. I don’t want to see us seizing foreign lands by force either.
But I am pleased that some of the excesses of the left are going to be reined in for a while. My taxes may get cut, and whether that’s fiscally prudent or not, I’ll take the money. A fair amount of sanity will come from Trump, and I will enjoy those parts of it. Let’s see what happens and not be hair-on-fire when he does things we don’t like or overexcited when he does things we do.
I'm deeply concerned about Ukraine too. The non-interventionist stance usually leads to some other power filling the vacuum of the U.S. Taiwan is definitely looking like it's in trouble over the next few years too. The 'woke' stuff needs a counterbalance, but I worry about the cost of unleashing it.
It also drives me nuts how quickly the entire MAGA right can be caused to change its opinion on an issue by a few influencers on their side and how intensely they will defend literally anything and everything Trump does. I never saw the left engage in this type of defense of everything Biden did (maybe a little more for Obama, but not like the defenses of Trump). You could see their initial impulse was to support Ukraine, but Tucker and others talked them out of it so quickly.
I constantly see this reference to the $250B we’ve gifted Ukraine and wanting it back. In the course of 3 years, that’s $83B per year. Our annual defense budget is $875B per year. I’d say that spending 10% of our annual defense budget to cause one of our top 3 hostile adversaries to be 99% deployed and fully taxed out is an absolute bargain. If we could similarly max out the Iranians and Chinese for $83B per year, that would also be an astonishing bargain. What else is a defense budget for if not that? People just cite numbers as if in comparison to their household budget and not realizing the US is a $27T economy with $6.5T of government spending per year.
There are some decent signs Trump won’t abandon Ukraine too, but I don’t like this uncertainty. And I’m sure that’s what Vance is counseling him to do.
Perhaps wrote too much there, but needed to vent a little about that.
I have also found the stoics incredibly helpful through this time. Epictetus has been my sage this week. He helps me focus on what I can control, rather than focusing on everything outside of myself.
Your opening reminded me of on Haidt's metaphor of consciousness, as only a child riding on the elephant of human cognition.
With all due respect to Marcus Arelius, our control over our own thinking is quite limited. Thus, it may be helpful to learn to Cherish Your Doubts (From Unitarian Website):
Cherish your doubts, for doubt is the attendant of truth.
Doubt is the key to the door of knowledge; it is the servant of discovery.
A belief which may not be questioned binds us to error,
for there is incompleteness and imperfection in every belief.
Doubt is the touchstone of truth; it is an acid which eats away the false.
Let no one fear the truth, that doubt may consume it; for doubt is a testing of belief.
The truth stands boldly and unafraid; it is not shaken by the testing:
For truth, if it be truth, arises from each testing stronger, more secure.
Those that would silence doubt are filled with fear; their houses are built on shifting sands.
But those who fear not doubt, and know its use, are founded on rock.
They shall walk in the light of growing knowledge; the work of their hands shall endure.
Therefore, let us not fear doubt, but let us rejoice in its help:
It is to be the wise as a staff to the blind; doubt is the attendant of truth.
I think a good mantra to repeat whenever i am stuck in the despair of uncertainty is to make your own certainties! What I mean is that when life feels out of control, we can think about what in our lives is by our definition, eternal.
Here are some of my examples:
-My family will always love and support me. Nobody will purposely abandon me (because I deserve to be loved and cherished)
-I will never give up (because people need me to be their champion and I need them)
-If I practice self-care, I will live healthfully for a long time (because science has found there is a strong correlation between self-care and a long life)
An annoyingly practical person might say this is yet another attempt to reassure myself, but I disagree. Maybe someone struggling with feeling out of control should remove the concept of control altogether. Sometimes thinking about what you can or cannot control causes you more anxiety since that way of thinking derives from the assumption that you will have to solve your problems completely alone, because control supposedly comes from inside you and you alone. But isn't that why you seek solace from people who love you, because they help you lift your burdens? What if instead of leaning heavily into the idea of nothing making sense since the world is so uncertain, we leaned into the idea of embracing the proof of how our lives do make sense? After all, we can’t wallow in uncertainty forever.
This is the way I think. Thank you. I am Mentally Ill, a senior citizen with rheumatoid arthritis, and LGBTQ+. I am also white and was raised upper middle class, instant privilege. I am starting to make plans of how in my quiet way…I CAN RESIST! We can make some noise and maybe even put a wrench into the MAGA machine. They don’t have to roll over us like tanks. Maybe we can put some “metaphorical” IUDs in their way.
Also makes me think of this quote from star academic Nassim Nicholas Taleb of Black Swan fame: "[Managing uncertainty]... should be about lessening the impact of what we don't understand -- not a futile attempt to develop sophisticated techniques and stories that perpetuate our illusions of being able to understand and predict the social and economic environment."
Reminds me of a good line from the 2021 film The Worst Person in the World: "I wasted so much time worrying about what could go wrong. But what did go wrong, was never the things I worried about."
We know what we are getting. A repeat of the last term. They controlled all branches and achieved nothing. They are just as dysfunctional now, if not more. We will see.
This morning a speaker on NPR suggested that doing away with all the career civil servants is likely to leave much of the federal bureaucracy in chaos... Very sad, but perhaps not as dangerous as we fear.
My primary concern with Trump is that he will abandon Ukraine. I will become ill if I watch tanks roll into Kyiv due to this. The world is safer with the Pax Americana since WW2. I also worry about Taiwan. I don’t want to see us seizing foreign lands by force either.
But I am pleased that some of the excesses of the left are going to be reined in for a while. My taxes may get cut, and whether that’s fiscally prudent or not, I’ll take the money. A fair amount of sanity will come from Trump, and I will enjoy those parts of it. Let’s see what happens and not be hair-on-fire when he does things we don’t like or overexcited when he does things we do.
I'm deeply concerned about Ukraine too. The non-interventionist stance usually leads to some other power filling the vacuum of the U.S. Taiwan is definitely looking like it's in trouble over the next few years too. The 'woke' stuff needs a counterbalance, but I worry about the cost of unleashing it.
It also drives me nuts how quickly the entire MAGA right can be caused to change its opinion on an issue by a few influencers on their side and how intensely they will defend literally anything and everything Trump does. I never saw the left engage in this type of defense of everything Biden did (maybe a little more for Obama, but not like the defenses of Trump). You could see their initial impulse was to support Ukraine, but Tucker and others talked them out of it so quickly.
I constantly see this reference to the $250B we’ve gifted Ukraine and wanting it back. In the course of 3 years, that’s $83B per year. Our annual defense budget is $875B per year. I’d say that spending 10% of our annual defense budget to cause one of our top 3 hostile adversaries to be 99% deployed and fully taxed out is an absolute bargain. If we could similarly max out the Iranians and Chinese for $83B per year, that would also be an astonishing bargain. What else is a defense budget for if not that? People just cite numbers as if in comparison to their household budget and not realizing the US is a $27T economy with $6.5T of government spending per year.
There are some decent signs Trump won’t abandon Ukraine too, but I don’t like this uncertainty. And I’m sure that’s what Vance is counseling him to do.
Perhaps wrote too much there, but needed to vent a little about that.
Do not obey in advance. Timothy Snyder.
https://youtu.be/9tocssf3w80?feature=shared
I have also found the stoics incredibly helpful through this time. Epictetus has been my sage this week. He helps me focus on what I can control, rather than focusing on everything outside of myself.
I appreciate this essay.
Your opening reminded me of on Haidt's metaphor of consciousness, as only a child riding on the elephant of human cognition.
With all due respect to Marcus Arelius, our control over our own thinking is quite limited. Thus, it may be helpful to learn to Cherish Your Doubts (From Unitarian Website):
Cherish your doubts, for doubt is the attendant of truth.
Doubt is the key to the door of knowledge; it is the servant of discovery.
A belief which may not be questioned binds us to error,
for there is incompleteness and imperfection in every belief.
Doubt is the touchstone of truth; it is an acid which eats away the false.
Let no one fear the truth, that doubt may consume it; for doubt is a testing of belief.
The truth stands boldly and unafraid; it is not shaken by the testing:
For truth, if it be truth, arises from each testing stronger, more secure.
Those that would silence doubt are filled with fear; their houses are built on shifting sands.
But those who fear not doubt, and know its use, are founded on rock.
They shall walk in the light of growing knowledge; the work of their hands shall endure.
Therefore, let us not fear doubt, but let us rejoice in its help:
It is to be the wise as a staff to the blind; doubt is the attendant of truth.
I think a good mantra to repeat whenever i am stuck in the despair of uncertainty is to make your own certainties! What I mean is that when life feels out of control, we can think about what in our lives is by our definition, eternal.
Here are some of my examples:
-My family will always love and support me. Nobody will purposely abandon me (because I deserve to be loved and cherished)
-I will never give up (because people need me to be their champion and I need them)
-If I practice self-care, I will live healthfully for a long time (because science has found there is a strong correlation between self-care and a long life)
An annoyingly practical person might say this is yet another attempt to reassure myself, but I disagree. Maybe someone struggling with feeling out of control should remove the concept of control altogether. Sometimes thinking about what you can or cannot control causes you more anxiety since that way of thinking derives from the assumption that you will have to solve your problems completely alone, because control supposedly comes from inside you and you alone. But isn't that why you seek solace from people who love you, because they help you lift your burdens? What if instead of leaning heavily into the idea of nothing making sense since the world is so uncertain, we leaned into the idea of embracing the proof of how our lives do make sense? After all, we can’t wallow in uncertainty forever.
This is the way I think. Thank you. I am Mentally Ill, a senior citizen with rheumatoid arthritis, and LGBTQ+. I am also white and was raised upper middle class, instant privilege. I am starting to make plans of how in my quiet way…I CAN RESIST! We can make some noise and maybe even put a wrench into the MAGA machine. They don’t have to roll over us like tanks. Maybe we can put some “metaphorical” IUDs in their way.
I have lived by this
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change
(EVERYTHING)
the corage to change the things I can
(HOW I CHOOSE TO REACT TO EVERYTHING)
andthe widom to know the diffference.
As I have said before Katherine you're a winner in this game of life
Also makes me think of this quote from star academic Nassim Nicholas Taleb of Black Swan fame: "[Managing uncertainty]... should be about lessening the impact of what we don't understand -- not a futile attempt to develop sophisticated techniques and stories that perpetuate our illusions of being able to understand and predict the social and economic environment."
Reminds me of a good line from the 2021 film The Worst Person in the World: "I wasted so much time worrying about what could go wrong. But what did go wrong, was never the things I worried about."
Very true. At least for me.
We know what we are getting. A repeat of the last term. They controlled all branches and achieved nothing. They are just as dysfunctional now, if not more. We will see.
This morning a speaker on NPR suggested that doing away with all the career civil servants is likely to leave much of the federal bureaucracy in chaos... Very sad, but perhaps not as dangerous as we fear.